A Strawman Proposal for Getting Started

A.  Introduction
 

In order to "regionalize" the ANSS, some first-order factors have to be considered:

 earthquake geography

 population distribution and relative risk

 maturity of "local" coalitions among earth scientists, engineers, and emergency managers for addressing EQ hazards

ANSS performance goals--see USGS Circular 1188, available at http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/pub/circulars/c1188

existing partnerships, affinities, and centers of activity

The Intermountain West is large--both in total area (nearly 3 times larger than California, Oregon, and Washington combined) and in the geographic extent of moderate to high seismic hazard.

(Click here for a map perspective of earthquake hazard throughout the western U.S.--and for the location of proposed ANSS urban networks, discussed below.  Source:  USGS, ANSS Info. Sheet)

Population distribution is highly heterogeneous and involves nine different state jurisdictions within four different FEMA regions (VI, VIII, IX, X). State populations range from 0.48 million (WY) to 4.8 million (AZ) [mean = 2.1; median, 2.0] and in aggregate total 20 million people to be served (vs 33 million in CA and 9.1 million in WA and OR).

Metropolitan areas at moderate to high risk in the Intermountain West which are targeted by the ANSS plan for urban strong-motion networks are:

•  Salt Lake City-Provo, UT (500 stations)
•  Reno, NV (200 stations)
•  Las Vegas, NV (100 stations)
•  Albuquerque, NM (50 stations)
•  Boise, ID (50 stations).

        [Note:  CA targeted for 2920 urban stations; WA and OR, 950]
 
 

B.  Goals & Desirable Outcomes
 

The ANSS aims to foster regional, state, and local coalitions of stakeholders to guide the creation and delivery of key information products and services. These include:

 Time-critical information for public safety

--rapid earthquake alert
--ShakeMaps in urban networks
--training & public education to enable use ofreal-time earthquake information
 

 Data & information for long-term EQ loss reduction

--high-quality seismicity catalogs and waveform archives
--EQ source characterization and other inputs to local/regional seismic hazard assessments
--strong-motion data and other inputs for ground motion modeling and EQ engineering
 

General information & expert services

-- useful and important region-specific information products arising from seismic monitoring (maps, databases, reports, publications, Web sites)
-- local/regional expertise to assist public policymakers, safety officials, planning & regulatory agencies, local businesses, news media, general public
-- education and training of seismologists

C.  Strategy
 

A first-order Intermountain West region and one corresponding Regional Subcommittee for its administration appear to be inescapable under the emerging national management structure.

But we believe that the Intermountain West is too large and diverse to be steered effectively by only one ANSS "Regional Subcommittee"--especially if the ultimate aim is to forge vital local coalitions.

So we propose (1) that the Intermountain West region be strategically divided into subregions, (2) that local coalitions steer these subregions, and (3) that representation from the subregions be an essential part of shaping one overarching ANSS Regional Subcommittee.

There appears to be a wide range in the "maturity" of existing coalitions among earth scientists, engineers, and emergency managers in various parts of the Intermountain West.  One structure that does exist, however, is the CNSS consortium of network operators which can be used as a STARTING POINT for the needed self-organizing of subregions.

Ultimately, it seems desirable to have individual states be sufficiently organized, active, and capable of being an effective subregion-unit of the ANSS, each with its own strong state-federal partnership. We believe that Utah and Nevada are at this stage now--reflected by . . .

•  state funding of earthquake programs

•  an empowered state seismic safety commission or council

•  a major regional seismic network center

•  the active involvement of engineers, state geological survey, emergency managers and other stakeholders in state earthquake programs

•  major population centers to be served by ANSS urban  strong-motion networks

•  capabilities/capacity for meeting ANSS performance goals in a relatively independent way

D.  Strawman for Organizing an ANSS Intermountain West Region

! ! ! This is only a strawman.  Self-organization and consensus-building are the rules of the game ! ! !  This is presented recognizing that, at the present time, the full implications of how we self-organize are not yet clear.  Thus some individuals or groups may attend our proposed organizational meeting (discussed later) to explore the implications of joining an Intermountain West Region without committing themselves to that organizational structure.

1. Define the Intermountain West, as it's conventionally done, to include MT, ID, WY, NV, UT, CO, AZ, NM--and include the western Texas/El Paso area.

 
2. Recognize that ANSS regions (and subregions) must necessarily have "fuzzy" boundaries when it comes to functional partnerships and affinities that may relate, say, to integrated network coverage, "mutual-aid" agreements, scientific or engineering interests, and so on.  For example, Nevada intends to maintain it's close ties with California and to continue it's monitoring of the intermountain region of eastern California, regardless of whether it ends up associated with the Intermountain West or the California region.

 
3. Allow Utah and Nevada the option to be individual subregions responsive to their respective state jurisdictions and regions of historical network coverage--but with assistance to other subregions as resources allow.

 
4. Given the concentration of Colorado's earthquake-related professionals in the Denver area, combined with the dominant role of federal agencies in dealing with Colorado's earthquake hazards, allow Colorado the option to be a separate subregion if it chooses.

 
5. For starters, encourage the remainder of Intermountain West states to coalesce into a northern group (MT, ID, and WY) and and a southern group (NM, AZ, western TX).

 
6. Ensure that each subregion has appropriate representation on the overarching ANSS "Regional Subcommittee" for the Intermountain West.

 
7. Use the Western States Seismic Policy Council(WSSPC) and its Great Basin committee to help involve emergency managers and state geological surveys on a region-wide basis in the Intermountain West.

Continue by next reading: Organizing Meeting(s)
 

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